There’s little question in spite of a steadied 2011 real estate market after two to three years of precipitous decline and recession, Vermonters will remember the extensive damage to real estate and infrastructure brought by Hurricane Irene on the last Sunday in August more than 2011 as the year of market stabilization.

Rochester Home & Collapsed Embankment from Irene, 1.1.12

From homes and buildings swept off their foundations and lost completely to entire first floors of homes left deep in silt, it was a massive event materially,  in the psyche of the Green Mountain residents, and dominating government action in the fourth quarter. A sudden increase in rental demand, historic property losses and titanic insurance claims leading to the the near-collapse of the federal government’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) ensued.

By some estimates the damage amounts to some three quarters of a billion dollars. The last Vermont highway Vermonters, including those in the Mad River Valley, united to raise historic amounts of money to support those affected. 2011 will go down as the year of Irene for  watershed Vermonters.

Japan’s massive north east coast earthquake & tsunami sent reverberations across the globe. From the nuclear meltdown at numerous Fukushima Tepco reactors, ensuing evacuation zones, an estimated 25,000 tsumami related deaths  to improved US auto sales following supply interruptions for Japanese automakers, it was an unforgettable year following 2010′s Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

Japanese May 14 Earthquake & Tsunami

With disaster in the rear view mirror, many also view 2011 nationally as the worst year on record (nationally) for new home sales, single family permits, and single family home starts, at least since 1945.

East Warren Road View of Sugarbush

Maple Sweet Real Estate saw, in contrast, our best year in gross sales, tapping into Vermont’s petit economy’s insulation from the broader national woes. and capitalizing on budding demand based on stunningly low mortgage rates and improving employment. Governor Peter Shumlin, in his state of the state address  January 5th, outlined Vermont has among the lowest unemployment rate in the nation at just 5.3%. Buyers in Vermont made offers with less trepidation than in 2010.

Taking a look at 2011 residential sales statewide, measured in millions:

2011 Vermont mls residential (excluding condominiums) sales numbered 4,012 units vs 3,986 in 2010, a slight uptick. Of these:

Stowe, 69 improved over 57 in 2010, Mad River Valley 54 vs 51,  Chittenden County 875 vs 856, Montpelier 45 vs 42, and in Addison County 228 vs 192. While the improvements are modest, these sales reflect the beginning of a gradual recovery.

377 Cross Road in Stowe, one of the highest Stowe sales, closed at $1,950,000 including 54 acres.

Among Highest 2011 Central & Northern Vermont Residential Sales:

Addison County $1,650,000 630 Mile Point Rd, Ferrisburgh, half an acre

Chittenden County $1,780,000 3611 Harbor Rd, Shelburne, 1.4 acres

Mad River Valley $1,275,000 1497 Bragg Hill Rd, 21 acres

Montpelier, $415,000 65 College St, just over half an acre

Stowe $4,000,000, 551 Edson Hill Road, 44 acres

“In the most recent report, the Census Bureau reported that the new-home market continued its rebound, with sales of new houses once again inching up last month. New-home sales rose 1.6 percent from October to November to an annualized rate of 315,000, and sales were up nearly 10 percent compared to November 2010.

The median sales price of a new home in November was $214,100, the Census Bureau reported, and the inventory of new houses nationwide decreased to a six-month supply at the current sales pace.”  -National Association of Realtors (NAR), RealtorMag 12.27.2011

And from NAR’s REALTOR.org: “Pending home sales continued to gain in November and reached the highest level in 19 months”. The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 7.3 percent to 100.1 in November from an upwardly revised 93.3 in October and is 5.9 percent above November 2010 when it stood at 94.5. The October upward revision resulted in a 10.4 percent monthly gain. The last time the index was higher was in April 2010 when it reached 111.5 as buyers rushed to beat the deadline for the home buyer tax credit. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the gains may result partially from delayed transactions.

Year of the Landlord

“Housing affordability conditions are at a record high and there is a pent-up demand from buyers who’ve been on the sidelines, but contract failures have been running unusually high. Some of the increase in pending home sales appears to be from buyers recommitting after an initial contract ran into problems, often with the mortgage,” he said.

“November is doing reasonably well in comparison with the past year. The sustained rise in contract activity suggests that closed existing-home sales, which are the important final economic impact figures, should continue to improve in the months ahead,” Yun added.”

Morgan Stanley coined 2011 the “Year of the Landlord”. Rental property demand surged in line with tight money and tightened lending conditions in spite of historically low interest rates.  Multi-family homes,  a perennial investor favorite, have been an even more attractive investment given the difficulties of obtaining mortgages and the attraction of renting out one or more of the purchased units as a hedge against carrying costs.

2011 Vermont MLS Land Sales Volume in Millions

According to Reuters, starts for structures with five or more units increased nearly double year-over-year levels along with a 2.6% rental cost increase compared with just six tenths of a percent in 2010.

Standard & Poor’s downgraded American’s AAA debt rating in August to AA+. The Euro faced it’s biggest challenges yet with the dismal state of the 17 nation eurozone, putting some Vermont buyers on alert following rescues of both the Greek & Irish economies, strained situations in Italy, France & Spain, and tumbling stocks.  Many view it as the most serious european crisis since World War II.An historic run of low interest rates.

2011 S&P 500 from www.seekingalpha.com

The S&P 500 ended nearly where it started with major dips due to the Japanese earthquake and tsunami and the resulting Fukushima Nuclear Crisis and the Budget debacle & US credit downgrade.

An unprecedented run of historcially low 30 year mortgage rates starting and ending in the four and three quarter per cent range, 2011 may go down in history as the year to have borrowed, not to mention the smiling faces of mortgage brokers all over the state as the refi (refinancing) apps came pouring in.  The brilliantly low interest rates are expected to continue early into 2012, remaining between four and five per cent for much of the new year.

Mike Donnelly of the Washington Post in a December 25th article: Distressed commercial real estate in the United States — including properties in default, foreclosure or taken back by lenders — totaled $171.6 billion in October 2011. That is a dip from the recent past.

2011 VT MLS Commercial Sales in Millions, NNEREN

Mind the Gap

Also expected in 2012 is a continuance of the gap between home seller and buyer expectations, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association in this HousingWire article. With many sellers anchored to past value perceptions and buyers operating in still recessionary markets, a higher than usual per centage of offer and counter offer negotiations have fallen through than under more usual circumstances.

“Bottom line, whether due to even lower prices, historically low mortgage rates, falling inventory and a better labor market or a combination of all, the housing market is showing signs of stabilizing” according t0 Peter Boockvar at Miller Tabak.

Maple Sweet Real Estate welcomes outstanding sales associate Jennifer Stella, who moved to Vermont from Bermuda.

Maple Sweet advertising expands with a new Maple Sweet Vermont Public Radio ad campaign airing thrice weekly throughout 2012. Building on the record successes of 2011, and based on the state and national trends outlined above, we expect 2012 to continue to improve in terms of local and statewide sales.

Connect to maplesweet.com, e-mail info@maplesweet.com or call toll-free 1-800-525-7965 to list your property, arrange for showings, or look further into Vermont’s real estate market.

See all Maple Sweet Real Estate listings and   the newest central & northern Vermont mls listings.  Thank you always.

If your property is already listed for sale with another real estate agency, this is not intended as a solicitation of that agency’s listing.

Vermont Required Consumer Information Disclosure: please note Vermont  real estate agencies represent Sellers directly or indirectly. Buyer representation can be gained for properties not already listed by Maple Sweet Real Estate. To better understand the merits of or arrange for buyer representation, please email or call for further details.

The Green Cup Ravaged, Shot by David Garten

Homes swept off their foundations, total losses, coffins floating out of the cemetery. While stagnant recessionary market conditions and historic drops in interest rates mark the last six months, it’s Irene that has indelibly tattooed Vermonters’ consciousness. Herculean relief efforts, exemplary citizenry mobilization and altruism and a model government response shine the light not just on the perils of living in a flood zone or watershed but even more dramatically on how amazing Vermont is a place to live.

Vermont Public Radio Image of Rochester Home Destruction

Never never land in more ways than one.  Massive flooding and logistical relief challenges to a real estate market in a seriously extended bind.

Since the fall of Lehman Brothers and the sub-prime fiasco in 2008 that triggered the precipitous decline in real estate markets all over the United States, one pundit after another has forecast a burgeoning recovery, passage of the market’s bottom,  and hopes for brighter times.  This year it’s becoming clearer and clearer the recession is outlasting nearly all predictions, from our own Green Mountains to the European debt crisis, plummeting asian markets and well beyond.

2011 second and third quarters have witnessed a seemingly endless stream of media doom and gloom.

In April Vermont Public  Radio reports that while Vermont avoided the most serious credit & housing market problems, home prices declined. The S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Indeces show the high in 2004 with the most dramatic drop in 2009, and this  year’s prices still off 4 per cent compared to a year ago.

2011 Year-to-Date VT Multiple Listing Service Sales, New Listings & Average Days on Market, Data Compliments of the Northern New England Real Estate Network

The National Association of Realtors publishes data showing existing home sales rose 7.7% in August relative to July, and were up an encouraging 18.6% from August 2010. NAR president Lawrence Yun cites positive market fundamentals including foreclosure absorption and inflation hedging despite Hurricane Irene sales disruptions. In Moretown, Vermont town office records were flooded delaying closings, forcing closing attorneys to scramble.

Today, with Q3 drawing to a close  the morrow, this article from Bloomberg  Pending U.S. Home Sales Decline 1.2% as Lower Prices Fail to Stoke Demand.

If you’re aiming to or trying to sell and thinking  mon Dieu, as the French say, or asking will this ever end, the market is far from dead. Talk about mixed messages. While it’s hard to know who to believe, pulling out of this historic recession and stoking the associated recovery is a complicated tapestry without conclusions as easily drawn as in more common times.

MLS Listings Sold in Q2 & Q3 by Price Range

One thing is clear. There are also historic opportunities for the discerning real estate investor, primary and secondary homeowners, and those looking to take advantages of 1041 exchanges. Check out these oustanding values: an over 11 acre prime east warren parcel with a house to renovate or remove and start afresh for just $249,000, a gambrel  home with a separate camp on over four acres for $285,000, a Mad River Glen 4BR ski chalet for $315,000, a sprawling open floor plan dormered Waitsfield cape with Sugarbush Lincoln Peak Views next to the Mad River protected by two large farms for just $575,000, and a cedar skylighted cape on 32.99 +/- acres including two extra already permitted lots with driveway roughed in for $669,000.

Maple Sweet Real Estate is enjoying a record breaking year of business with steady offers, closings and listings in the single family, condominium, commercial and land markets.

Connect to maplesweet.com, e-mail info@maplesweet.com or call toll-free 1-800-525-7965 to list your property, arrange for showings, or look further into Vermont’s real estate market.

While many thought this question would have  been answered tidily in 2010, the question echoes into 2011. With historically low interest rates, significantly more motivated sellers and still ample inventory, buyers, especially first time home buyers, have all the incentives to want to jump but have continued to be in short supply with lenders seeing fewer gains and increased associated risk and as such tightening lending standards, effectively hemming in demand. Fits and starts, a sputtering recovery.

Optimists sing a different song.

Maple Sweet Real Estate has enjoyed more properties than usual under contract and the National Association of Realtors sees the country having hit bottom last summer.

Eyeing The Market

RISMEDIA, April 21, 2011—”Sales of existing-home sales rose in March 2011, continuing an uneven recovery that began after sales bottomed last July, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 3.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.10 million in March from an upwardly revised 4.92 million in February, but are 6.3% below the 5.44 million pace in March 2010. Sales were at elevated levels from March through June of 2010 in response to the home buyer tax credit.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expects the improving sales pattern to continue. “Existing-home sales have risen in six of the past eight months, so we’re clearly on a recovery path,” he said. “With rising jobs and excellent affordability conditions, we project moderate improvements into 2012, but not every month will show a gain—primarily because some buyers are finding it too difficult to obtain a mortgage. For those fortunate enough to qualify for financing, monthly mortgage payments as a percent of income have been at record lows.” See the full story.

Here are Vermont Northern New England Real Estate Network MLS stats for the whole state, comparing Q1 2011 with Q1 2010 showing residential sale volume up markedly in January and slightly in February relative to 2010, and while up a lot in March from the previous month, markedly lower than a in comparison to March of 2010 when the Home Buyer Tax Credit was in full swing.

…………………New      Pend     Cntg   Sold    AvgSold$    DOM
Jan 2011    824      325       209    332    $236,688     194

Jan 2010    995      384        94     271    $233,326     176

Feb 2011    810      334       118     272    $248,800    168

Feb 2010    1,229   427      118     267    $229,080     147

Mar 2011    1,037   471        143   376    $255,581     177

Mar 2010    1,448  665       163   421    $220,394       141

The median national home price fell 5.9 percent in March from a year earlier to $159,600, while in Vermont the median March 2011 sale price was $197,000.

Putting a floor under prices: both February and March enjoyed decreasing unemployment and job growth and economists believe the housing market will continue to improve into the second, third and fourth quarters.

Connect to maplesweet.com, e-mail info@maplesweet.com or call toll-free 1-800-525-7965 to list your property, arrange for showings, or look further into Vermont’s real estate market.

2010 Vermont Residential Sales Volume

Job shortages, swollen deficits, hammered mid-term election incumbents, 2010 was a year spent climbing out of the deepest recession since the 1930′s.

China muscles past Japan as the worlds’ second strongest economy, a stunning but not suprising reminder of the competition American supremacy faces. According to the World Bank, China, with a massive thirst for raw materials, could surpass the United States by 2020.

The real estate crisis commands headlines across the nation and here in Vermont. While 30 year interest rates dipped to 4.17% in November, the lowest in decades, one in four homeowners across the nation owed more than their property was worth leading to viral short sales and foreclosures, not even our Green Mountain paradise immune to the perils of the market’s flooring. Q4 saw a 23 state foreclosure freeze in the face of allegations of lender mishandling and robo-signers signing well over a hundred foreclosures a day without regarding case details.

2010 Vermont Land Sales Volume

Facebook tops 500 million users changing the way the world communicates including practitioners, buyers and sellers of real estate and iPads revolutionize browsing the internet with touch screens taking to larger an larger devices including jumbo flat screen monitors. At this rate it won’t be long before you can search for your new house or comparables of your existing home in the multiple listing service on a virtual bright lit screen in thin air.

Mobile Freedom: Working in the Clouds

The increasing importance of  cloud computing. Maple Sweet Real Estate transfers significant operations from remote devices to the cloud. The Econonomist publishes on our “clouded future”; the growth of e-labor and e-commerce.

These fundamental changes in how we work are liberating real estate investors to live full or part time in Vermont rather than being shackled to their metropolis.

Huffington Post on the struggling economy: “As the year closes, the economy makes broad gains. Factories produce more. Consumers – the backbone of the economy – return to the malls. Congress passes $858 billion in tax cuts and aid to the long-term unemployed. Yet more than 15 million Americans are still unemployed. Economists say a full economic recovery remains years away.”

In the face of historic tax revenue shortfalls, federal, state and local governments tighten their belts affecting Vermont property owners, schools and communities. School budgets are feeling the heat with programs and in some cases faculty being cut, on others pressure to consolidate schools. Among the ensuing potential changes in 2011, the Vermont legislature may vote into law what Governor Douglas vetoed in 2011,  fundamental changes to Vermont’s Current Use Program that would alter how the Land Use Change Tax (LUCT) is determined.

The definition of fair market value, on which the tax is calculated, would shift from the most recent assessed value of the land being withdrawn from Current Use to the prorated sale price at closing. In many towns across the state this change would constitute a significant increase in the LUCT (withdrawal penalty) for sellers, especially as inflation sets in and Vermont’s real estate market improvement accelerates.

2010 National Association of Realtors (NAR)Pending Home Sales Index showing pending home sales in the North East up in 4 of the last 5 months of 2010.

2010 NAR Existing Home Sales Index showing North East existing sales volume up 6.4% in November vs October (down 35.11% vs last year) and Existing Home Sale Prices up 9.2% vs last year.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun in a Video on the gradual recovery.

Businesses Hiring, Unemployment Falls to 9.4% in December, Lowest Since May 2009

CNN : “Overall, the economy rounded out 2010 with 1.1 million jobs added, the best one-year gain in hiring since 2007.

Vermont Unemployment Rate

While the latest data brings hope for 2011, economists caution that job gains will be gradual at best. There’s still “a long way to go to recover the 8.5 million jobs lost since the Great Recession began.”

Capricious indeed, but the flourishing recovery is in motion. Vermont property owners have much to celebrate being in a better position than 12 months ago & having a markedly brighter forecast for this year. Coming out of three historically difficult years, 2011 promises a better landscape to enjoy and take advantage of.

Connect to maplesweet.com, e-mail info@maplesweet.com or call toll-free 1-800-525-7965 to list your property, arrange for showings, or look further into Vermont’s real estate market.

Emerson

The Tables, They’re A Turnin’

Ralph Waldo Emerson, American 19th Century lecturer, essayist, poet & champion of individualism wrote that “A political victory,a rise in rents, the recovery of your sick, or return of your absent friend, or some other quite external event, raises your spirits, and you think good days are preparing for you. Do not believe it. Nothing can bring you peace but yourself. Nothing can bring you peace but the triumph of principles of “Self-Reliance”"

Sound words in a season of struggle for so many Vermonters, a time in which month after month, in spite of scattered signs of recovery, local and national economic gurus pull back on their reigns on premature predictions of the revamping of the American Dream.  Despite the murky waters and the loss of equity for so many homeowners across the state and country, opportunists are capitalizing on extraordinary and plentiful options that such a dramatic shift offers. Interest rates at 4.375% on a 30 year note without rising substantially for months in spite of what is inevitable. Sellers finding reasons to move on and get to the closing table, buyers with historic breadth of choice and favorable purchasing conditions. Whether or not we’ve hit bottom, once past a certain point, it becomes a less and less valid question. Action now, sparks that lead to fire, agents of change. Confidence in the face of adversity.

Lawrence Yun, NAR (National Assocation of Realtors) chief economist, says home sales still remain subpar. “The housing market is trying to recover on its own power without the home buyer tax credit. Despite very attractive affordability conditions, a housing market recovery will likely be slow and gradual because of lingering economic uncertainty.”

And Yun, on fallout from the recession continuing to impact commercial real estate markets:

“Vacancy rates are beginning to level off in some sectors, but rent discounts and moderate levels of landlord concessions are widespread,” he said. “This is very much a tenant’s market, which is quite favorable for businesses that are considering expansion. It’s also encouraging that there is a modest improvement in the sentiment of commercial real estate practitioners.”

Timothy Geithner, US Treasury Secretary , a week ago: “You had this huge growth in leverage in the financial system, huge over investment in real estate in parts of the country, and those things made the crisis much more acute. But more relevant for us now, they make the recovery harder,”

Vermont Unemployment Dropping

“The momentum behind the national recovery seems to be waning. While we are encouraged by the local economic indicators available to us – such as early taxable receipts data and a stable, low unemployment rate relative to the current environment – the economic recovery remains uneven and uncertain. We continue to watch the national front for indications, as well as trends here in Vermont.”    Valerie Rickert, September 21, 2010, Vermont Department of Labor

A major indication?  Check this news out:

DOW up 15%, best third quarter since 1939! The stock market confounds skeptics in the third quarter, ending near its highs for the year with many of the riskiest stocks leading the charge, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Best 3rd Quarter since 1939! Picasso's Bull Market.

The rally that began in early spring gained steam over the summer. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 15% in the latest three months for its biggest quarterly gain since the fourth quarter of 1998 and its best third quarter since 1939.

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index gained 137.76 points, or 15%, to 1057.08, in the third quarter, leaving it up 17% for the year and up 56% from its March low but off 32% from its October 2007 high.

The powerful rally came as the economy overall showed signs of stabilization. Corporate profits have come in above reduced expectations, in large part due to cost cutting. It steamrolled concerns that consumers remain hobbled by debt, high unemployment and depressed home prices.

Existing Home Sales, completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increase 7.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million in August from an upwardly revised 3.84 million in July, but remain 19.0 percent below the 5.10 million-unit pace in August 2009.

The big gains followed a brutal bear market that hit hardest those companies with the shakiest balance sheets, heavy debt loads and high fixed costs. The Fed responded by cutting interest rates essentially to zero and flooded the credit markets with additional money, buying up Treasurys, government-backed mortgage securities and agency debt.

“There was a lot of talk this summer about a double-dip recession, and while it’s true things have slowed down, the technicals have really changed and it’s a much more healthy environment now.”  Kenny Landgraf, principal at Kenjol Capital Markets.

Maple Sweet Real Estate

Connect to www.maplesweet.com, e-mail info@maplesweet.com or call toll-free 1-800-525-7965 to list your property, arrange for showings, or look further into the real estate market.

Batten Down The Hatches

Gold Harbor

Dow Slides 10%, closing out at a new low for the year. Investors hunker down in defensive investments like gold and US treasurys as volatility spikes.  Short sales and foreclosures multiply, even in Vermont.

Wells Fargo reported the response to the ending tax credits for first-time home buyers and some trade-up purchases was fast and furious. New home sales plunge immediately following the April 30 deadline to put home purchases under contract. Existing home sales were expected to hold up for another couple of months, but posted a surprising 2.2 percent drop in May, as a large number of pending purchases had trouble clearing newly implemented credit and appraisal guidelines.

Buyers, realtors & attorneys struggle to consummate their property closings in short order as bank regs tighten leading to delays and marathon closings while waiting for the money to show.

Not a market for the meek at heart, but mortgage rates hit record lows, dipping to an astounding 4.5% prompting anyone with any liquidity to reach for a loan and happily capitalize on outstanding real estate opportunities.

Free Falling Mortgage Rates

While the sub-prime crisis was the perfect storm that led us into one of the worst recessions in modern american history, conditions now seem exquisitely aligned to buy. To paraphrase one femme fatale, offer baby offer.

The Financial Accelerator. How the financial shocks stemming from the fall of 2007 turned into a deep recession and how the value of collateral, one of the major forces behind mortgages, has weakened, and appraisals validity.

The key question many are asking is does a spate of negative economic data sets translate into a double dip recession?

Double Dipping

Consumer confidence dove in June, down by 10 per cent according to the Confeence Board Index, quite typical during recoveries from historic recessions as in ’92 and ’03. Continuing high unemployment figures of over 9 per cent coupled with the malaise surrounding almost three months of over a million gallons of British Petroleum crude gushing into the gulf and onto gulf coast state beaches. American President Obama’s popularity tumbles in this season of frustration.

Former Fed chariman Allen Greenspan termed this dip a typical “pause” cased in part by continuing apprehension surrounding crippling European debt levels. Add to that pending home and new single family homes sales were off by at or over a whopping 30 per cent, though some of that widely predicted discrepancy is due to the expiration of the lauded federal homebuyers tax credit at the end of May.

According to the Wall Street journal, apartment vacancies fell slightly during the second quarter, the first drop in three years, as improving consumer confidence reversed the trend of renters doubling up or moving in with family during the recession, though office vacancies continued to accumulate in the second quarter, the latest indication that businesses aren’t planning significant hiring in the near future.

Free Falling Sunset After more than three years of falling, real estate values have shown signs of stabilization in recent months.

There is well founded cause for hope. Home values nation wide were 4% higher than a year before. Q2 2010 saw 1,641 Vermont residential closings compared with just 1,289 in Q2 2009. Pending listings were slightly down, 1,723 vs 1,822 in 2009 and the average number of days on the market grew from 147 to 161. The average sale price rose from’Q2 ’09 to ’10 from $224.088 to $229,839

The IMF, on the economic recovery, sees 4.5% recovery in 2010 reflecting stronger activity in the first two quarters.

At or close to bottom, it’s still a buyer’s market but one clearly navigable for sellers. Keys to success are pricing competitively, under pricing to effect action as quickly as possible and with a little luck bidding wars, or taking the opposite tack and pricing with plenty of fat to help ensure that once the interested buyer shows up, there’s plenty of room to negotiate and allow the buyer to feel he or she is getting a phenomenal deal.

Adventures around every bend,  following the yellow brick road though forests of flying kidnapping monkeys and sleepy fields of perfume. Running from the wicked witch of the east in search of the great and powerful Oz.

Follow The Yellow Brick Road

Longer average periods on the market, patience. Addressing deferred maintenance and taking staging into consideration help not just in reducing the time on the market but also improving your bottom line.

Just as the crowds grow weary from recession, look up. Signs of rejuvenation abound. Just when the pack is running in the opposite direction, the savvy are putting their money into the spectacular real estate opportunities today, planning for the morrow.

Imagine 627 acres with an excellent more than mile long access road and a high meadow pond with views to die for just 20 minutes from the state capital. Formerly listed at 1.25 million, make them yours for just $730,000.

Teal Farm Hearth, 500 Huntington Acres

Purchase one of the most beautiful contemporaries in the state on 4 acres, designed by recently deceased architect Stewart Sutcliffe on 4 acres at the edge of a brook, asking just $279,000. A nearly 4,000 sq ft dormered cape with Sugarbush views for $595,000, or splurge in a big way and purchase the incomparable Teal Farm on some 500 acres in Huntington encircled by the Camel’s Hump State Forest, listed at $15,495,000 or this marquee hilltop Waterbury Pinnacle Point Home with marble jetted bath, hot tub,gunnite pool and massive panoramic views listed at $995,000.

Stowe Village Escape

Pick up a converted barn ski home right in Stowe Village with a ski railing & cast concrete kitchen counter for just $379,000. Or a charming Waterbury Center house close to Stowe on 5 acres with a new 2 bay garage with a finishable second floor for $373,000. Move to the Mad River Valley into a barn conversion three bedroom with cathedral ceiling, attached garage & big views for $459,000 or into a Starksboro home built circa 1795 on over 3 acres with a stream and a gorgeous four foot fireplace to welcome you for $349,000.

Looking for a year round home to escape to on Lake Champlain? Check out this Ferrisburgh beauty for just $585,000, or consider this eclectic cliff side home with elegant interior just minutes from the heart of Vermont’s state capital, Montpelier, for an amazing $199,900.

So much to take advantage of.

Connect to www.maplesweet.com, e-mail info@maplesweet.com or call toll-free 1-800-525-7965 to list your property, arrange for showings, or look further into the real estate market.

vermontbiz.com highlights increasing optimism from Vermont’s leading businesses drawing from a CEO survey on expectations of boosts in sales, capital spending & workforces.

Northeast existing home sales rose 3% and median prices gained 7.5% in February according to the Commerce Department. California home sales were up 8%, and a new study by the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corp) also show tangible signs of improvement and historically high affordability levels in the US housing market.

Improvement indicators abound including subdued inflation, rising stock prices and a strengthening US Dollar five month rally. Alan Ruskin, head of currency strategy for RBS Capital Markets in Stamford, CT:  “We’ve moved away from the worst fears. In the U.S., the economy picked itself up off the ground. Compared to what it might have looked like from the view of March 2009, March 2010 looks very good.”

Examining The Tree of Life in James Cameron's Avatar, Best Selling Film of All Time

Vermont’s twin and soon to merge multiple listing services show improved first quarter residential sales across the state.

Though there is some overlap and total Vermont mls sales are less than the addition of the two numbers for each year, first quarter sales are up in 2010 50.5% in NNEREN (the Northern New England Real Estate Network), 25.1% in VREIN (the Vermont Real Estate Information Network) and an average of 37.8% over the first quarter of 2009 after having contracted significantly in 2009 compared to 2008.

For 2010/2009/2008 :

NNEREN 265/176/242

VREIN  453/362/534

According to the 42 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the U.S. economy will grow at an annual rate of 2.7 percent over each of the next five quarters with unemployment projected to be an annual average of 9.8 percent in 2010 before falling to 9.2 percent in 2011, 8.3 percent in 2012, and 7.3 percent in 2013.

Others wonder if we’ve hit bottom yet. Joe Morgan, Chief Investment Officer of SVB Asset management writes of “Surviving at the Bottom of the Riverbed” this year, citing ambiguity in the upswing and continued investor challenges.

The narrow passage of the National Health Care Overhaul raised passions on both sides of the political spectrum and will affect real estate markets indirectly given the large segment of the economy affected by the overhaul, and the Obama Administration turned its attention to the next massive and controversial congressional financial fight: overhauling the Fannie Mae (FNM) & Freddie Mac (FRE) public private hybrid structure housing finance system.

Fannie & Freddie ( Government Sponsored Enterprises or GSEs) purchase bank housing loans, package them together with securities and sell them to Wall Street freeing up capital for home loans and extending homeownership opportunities.

GSE Reform is receiving heightened attention 18 months after the GSEs were placed in conservatorship, and is bound to be divisive given the broadly diverging political opinions on how extensive the government subsidy role should be and the risks involved with withdrawing the GSEs from conservatorship for the still fragile housing market.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner this month said “Private gains will no longer be subsidized by public losses, capital and underwriting standards will be appropriate, consumer protection will be strengthened, and excessive risk taking will be restrained.”

Th graph above, from the Wall Street Journal Online, shows the increasingly important role Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac, along with the Federal Housing Authority (FHA)  have come to play in the home loan provision as private investors have been absent during the bust.

First time home buyers and eligible existing home owners are still poised to take advantage of the potential $8,000 and $6,500 tax credits which will continue to boost Vermont residential sales into Q2. These tax credits are available for contracts signed by the end of April and closed on by the end of June. With what many now consider to be an economy already bottomed out and on the rise and 30 year interest rates still hovering around 5%,  these are historic opportunities to buy and take advantage of cheap money,  choose from plentiful inventory and work with some motivated sellers.

Abundant signs of spring and a burgeoning economic recovery point to an ever improving 2010. Vermont property owners and prospective purchasers have a lot to look forward to as Vermont climbs steadily out of the recession, contracts and closings multiply, and property values retake lost ground and appreciate anew.

stands as a beacon of hope and recovery after one of the most challenging years in contemporary Vermont real estate history.  Following the sub-prime mortgage driven precipitous market collapse in the autumn of 2008, 2009 has been a challenging year for all of Vermont, from real estate property holders to the halls of government. Median real estate prices, while formerly lamented only for their slowing levels of appreciation, this year fell.

Record unemployment and foreclosure levels in Vermont which traditionally boasts one of the lowest foreclosure rates in the nation sent jitters throughout real estate markets and boosted inventory and shadow inventory,  the properties that would otherwise already be on the market but whose sellers are holding off given lamentable market conditions. Unemployment, between 4 percent and 6 percent for most of this decade, surged to almost 7.5% percent in May and approached 10 per cent in other states.

According to the Northern New England Real Estate Network mls data, December 2009 new listings in Vermont numbered  254 with 128 sold @ just under 24 and a half million in traded volume and an average of 211 days on the market. December of 2008 by contrast included 336 new listings with 141 sold @ almost 26 million in volume and an average 189 days on the market. State wide median sale prices on residential property this year lies at $169,000, a marked drop from the 2008 median sale price of $182,000.

The Vermont Real Estate Network reports an average 2009 sale price @  $229,431, down from $250,769 in 2008.

There is change in the air.

Today Stock prices rose around the world on news of economic recovery and 30 year mortgage rates rose to 5.25% for the first time since late October as illustrated by this bankrate.com graph.

The successful extension and expansion of the home buyer’s tax credit, at an estimated cost to taxpayers of $10.8 billion and known as the Worker, Home Ownership and Business Assistance Act of 2009 was  signed into law November 6th by President Obama and has spurred sales and help boost the number of residential transactions across the state.

While many prospective purchasers and realtors were rushing against the clock to compete with the November 30th deadline,  the extension covers contracts signed by April 30th of 2010 and related closings by July 1st. With up to an $8,000 non-refundable credit available well into the New Year, prospective purchasers are eyeing the market much more carefully and looking for opportunities to cash in on this substantial potential windfall. With 30 year note interest rates still hovering around 5%, this combination of favorable buyer side conditions is fueling buyer demand in the primary residence market even during one the most enduring and acute of broad economic recessions.

For a detailed summary of the credit which is now available to some existing home owners who’ve been in their homes for five consecutive of the last eight years,  click here to read the related Maple Sweet Real Estate Light Amber blog entry.

Consumer purchasing rose in November along the biggest income gain in six months and an increase in spending as consumers slowly gained confidence in their purchasing comfort although  new home construction hit a nine month low according to bloomberg.com with national sales dropping 11 percent to an annual pace of 355,000.

September home prices rose in 20 US homes rose in September for the fourth consecutive month.

Inman.com: housing is expected to make gains in 2010,  just not explosive ones. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects that new-home sales, which declined from 485,000 in 2008 to a projected 391,000 in 2009 — which would be a record low in Census data dating back to 1963 — will climb back to 483,000 in 2010 and 609,000 in 2011. Sales of existing homes, which bottomed at 4.9 million in 2008 and are projected to barely break the 5 million mark in 2009, could be on track to climb to 5.55 million in 2010 and 6 million in 2011, the MBA said.

Not soon to be forgotten was the mortgage landscape this year. Month after month saw record lows, with November boasting the lowest rates on 30 year notes seen in 38 years. Scores of lucky borrowers and refinancers will remember 2009 as they year they scored historically low-interest rates, while many others will try to forget the year in which they were turned down for financing given much more stringent loan qualification requirements and underwriting standards on the coat tails of the sub prime fiasco of 2008.

Federal Housing Administration backed loan demand increased sixfold during the downturn leading to a reduced capitol reserve ration and potentially higher 2010 mortgage insurance premiums. Other tightening could include an increase the amount of upfront cash home buyers must bring to the table, raising minimum FICO scores for new borrowers, and reducing maximum seller concessions from 6 to 3 percent. The credit box, or pool of eligible borrowers, is shrinking.

The work of appraisers in a sliding economy has been made more challenging, with some trades being negatively affected or even lost due to unduly low appraisals derailing sales.

Short sales were up over 125% nationally as compared to a year ago with many Vermont homeowners walking away from the closing table with damaged credit scores and either without any equity or an obligation to repay shortfalls in coming years, capping many months of frustration in finally closing.  Worse even other sellers ended up with foreclosed property after lethargic mishandling of the proposed short sale by the bank that left prospective purchasers in no position but to cancel their contracts.

2009 also witnessed the rise of social media, evidenced by www.maplesweet.com Who in 2008 had ever heard of Twitter? For millions across the land, its a staple of communication and aptly reflective of our national gypsy psychology. That’s right, it’s time to establish a presence; remember, it’s recorded for posterity.

Q4 offers the first real hope of a sustained recovery after months of expectation and false predictions. At last it seems, as we break into 2010, the bottom of the market has been reached and passed. While 2010 will pose its own challenges, the Vermont real estate market is bound for better days.

To take advantage of the extraordinary opportunities this nexus offers for both buyers and sellers, connect to www.maplesweet.com, e-mail info@maplesweet.com or call toll-free 1-800-525-7965 to list your property, arrange for showings, or look into the market in other ways.

Happy New Year!

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) — The number of contracts to buy previously owned homes in the U.S. increased more than forecast in August, reinforcing signs of a rebound in housing, industry figures showed today.

The index of signed purchase agreements, or pending home sales, rose 6.4 percent after a 3.2 percent gain in July, the National Association of Realtors announced in Washington. The gain was the seventh in a row. Compared with a year earlier, pending sales rose 12.4 percent.

Home Sales Contracts in 7 Month Rally. One problem in extrapolating future closings from contract signings, however, is that there are continuing problems obtaining mortgages that may scuttle many deals, according to Yun. “The rise in pending home sales shows buyers are returning to the market and signing contracts, but deals are not necessarily closing because of long delays related to short sales, and issues regarding complex new appraisal rules,” he said.

Home Sales Up; Home Prices Down. It is becoming increasingly clear that a two-headed housing recovery is underway. Unfortunately, unlike Siamese twins, the heads will not be arriving at the same time. Recent reports on housing activity strongly indicate that a home sales recovery is now underway, while a home price recovery continues to be far off; perhaps not until the middle of 2010.

Q3 real estate market activity was clearly affected by the race to capitalize on the First Time Home Buyer’s Tax Credit as first time home buyers intensified their house hunts.

Bloomberg: existing U.S. home sales jump to highest level in 2 years.

Crain’s: Suburban landlords see third quarter uptick in vacant office space.

National 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate Falls Below 5 Percent.

15 year mortgage rates fell to lowest point in 15 years.

DOW, Up 15%, Has Best Quarter since ’98: The big gains followed a brutal bear market that hit hardest those companies with the shakiest balance sheets, heavy debt loads and high fixed costs. The Fed responded by cutting interest rates essentially to zero and flooded the credit markets with additional money, buying up Treasuries, government-backed mortgage securities and agency debt.

Gold Prices Hit Record High.

Apartment Glut Expands.

The Two Headed Housing Recovery. In the past, housing contractions and recoveries were measured by a drop or rise in home sales and housing construction activity. It was uncommon for home values to drop in a housing contraction, at least on a national scale. But today’s housing recession is an exception-both home sales/construction and home prices have fallen precipitously during the past 3 years. Thus, for us to proclaim a complete recovery in the today’s housing sector, both home sales/construction and home prices must stabilize and begin their ascent.

Residential & Commercial Real Estate Headed in Different Directions. The good news is that after a prolonged contraction, residential construction is finally going in the right direction and is expected to meaningfully contribute to GDP growth in the third quarter of this year. The bad news is that commercial construction is moving in the opposite direction.

Bear market rally or recovery? Bearish Paul Tudor Jones vs bullish Goldman Sachs.”We are much closer to a housing bottom than many believe.” Joseph Lavorgna, chief US economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York.  Combined sales of new and existing homes were up 15 percent in August from January, when they reached the lowest level since comparable records began in 1999, according to figures from the Commerce Department and the National Association of Realtors.

For more information go to www.maplesweet.com www.lightamber.wordpress.com e-mail us at info@maplesweet.com or call 1-800-525-7965. Thank you very much for your interest. To a great Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas, Hanukkah & New Year’s Eve.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey showed consumer confidence up for the fourth consecutive month and retail sales have risen slightly. While gas prices have risen in Q2, the inflation indexes are down slightly and 30 year notes remain well under 6%, with this week’s rate hovering around 5 and a half per cent as shown in the bankrate.com graph below. All in all, quite a bit to smile about and further evidence the last six months of 2009 promise a more solid upswing in real estate markets across the country and in Vermont.

Prospective purchasers are eying these signs of recovery and taking action. To take advantage of the still large inventories and motivated sellers, some purchasers are opting to forgo their inspection as an inducement to sale, others presenting offers free of other contingencies to make them more attractive to the sellers and still take advantage of the more reasonable and competitive asking prices which abound.

President Obama unveiled his US financial regulatory system overhaul plan including changes aimed at protecting mortgagees with a new super department called the Consumer Financial Protection Agency. Watch this Bloomberg Obama interview & Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner testifying the day after Obama unveiled the plan.

On the first time home buyer’s tax credit, new bills have been introduced in both the House & the Senate to open up the credit to all buyers, keep it on the books through the next year and take away the current income limitations which currently start reducing credit eligibility for individuals with income over $75,000 and married couples over $150,000.

Zillow.com offers a sobering assessment of the second quarter with double digit depreciation, values slipping back to 2004 levels, and some sellers closing at prices lower than they paid. While Vermont has trailed the west coast & major national market trends, the second Green Mountains quarter has seen continuing high inventories, dramatically fewer purchasers than a year ago, and further price adjustments.

The National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday June 23rd in a CNN Money article that sales of single family residence properties rose 2.4% in May, as prices fell nearly 17% from a year ago along with some sales being stalled by inadequate appraisals. With the still large existing housing inventories and moderated prices, “Newly constructed homes simply cannot compete with the values found in the existing home market,” said Bob Walters, chief economist at Quicken Loans.

Here in central & northern Vermont, we’re seeing fantastic existing housing values available while new home construction prices have continued to climb with increasing building supply costs. A 2,200 square foot home, at $150 a square foot, comes in at $380,000 in addition, at least, to the cost of the land.  Even a small lot puts the construction cost well into the mid $400k range which will buy you a lot if you purchase existing construction. For a selection of outstanding values in existing Vermont housing, check the Newest Listings, Our Listings, and Residential Properties tabs at www.maplesweet.com or use the google map to discover your options at the bottom of the top page.

Also hopeful, the New York State housing market posts gains for second consecutive month with a nearly 14% increase in single family closed sales in April from March as outlined in this Real Estate Rama article.

In Vermont the Vermont Real Estate Information Network, as of June 29th, posts 675 residential (excluding condos) units sold across the state in the second quarter, compared with 381 in the first quarter, a dramatic almost 80% increase. The Northern New England Real Estate Network lists 321 closed in Q2  & 175 in Q2, also a laudable  increase amounting to over 83%.

The Mad River Valley Northern New England Real Estate mls closed home sales numbers: five in Q1, eight in Q2.  Looking back a year, 2008 Q1: 10 closings &  ’08 Q2: 14,  nearly double this year’s volume. Happily though, there are all of eleven residential Mad River Valley homes under contract as of this writing.

In conclusion, we’re seeing mixed news. While some see solid real estate market improvement, the bears continue to lament the sluggish economy, high unemployment & pregnant inventories. With Q2 sales nearly double those in Q1, there is ample cause for optimism and action.

My instincts are Q3 & Q4 will continue to show marked improvement on the seller side and, coupled with likely mortgage interest rate inflation, furnish more impetus to buyers poised to make their moves on so many historic opportunities that, if viewed too passively, may evaporate as the tide turns. For sellers & prospective purchasers, it’s an exciting period of change, redirection and opportunity.

For more information go to www.maplesweet.com www.lightamber.wordpress.com e-mail us at info@maplesweet.com or call 1-800-525-7965. Thank you very much for your interest. To a wondrous summer.